illustration by Molotok007/ dreamstime
A discussion on social media about population loss prompted former Memphian Chris Clifton to cut to the chase: “It’s all about having critical conversations about outcomes and the leadership to take us to our new Memphis.”
Clifton, former executive VP and COO of the Greater Memphis Chamber and now head of economic development in Watertown, South Dakota, sliced through the angst about the city’s loss of people to suggest the question that remains to be answered: What exactly is the plan for a new Memphis, the one with declining population?
The data prompting the discussion are unquestionably brutal. They led former Mayor Jim Strickland in 2020 to call population loss Memphis’s number-one challenge; however, his administration’s response was to challenge the U.S. Census Bureau’s tally rather than mount a process to understand and address the forces and factors producing the loss.
City Hall alarm bells sounded because the Census Bureau reported that Memphis had lost 13,785 people in the 10 years between 2010 and 2020. Despite that burst of concern, there’s been little attention when the Bureau recently reported an even more sobering fact: that between 2020 and 2023, the trend accelerated with the loss of an additional 16,786, which meant that Memphis has lost 28,250 residents since 2010.
Memphis often lags national trend lines and there are those who hope that this is another case where Memphis will eventually play catch up. And yet, hope is not a business plan.
For decades, Memphis created a false sense of security by propping up its population with an aggressive annexation program as city government chased taxpayers moving out of the city. At the same time, Memphis was losing population in the area left behind.
Such a plan deserves the special attention of local government. After all, fewer people translates into fewer people buying homes and paying property taxes, fewer purchasers paying sales taxes, and stressed government budgets. To top it off, it means reduced money from the federal government, which bases funding for many programs based on populations.
Although population loss was common in almost all large U.S. cities during the pandemic, many are bouncing back. Memphis’ challenge, however, runs deeper and began long before the pandemic with unheeded early warnings that the city was losing people.
For decades, Memphis created a false sense of security by propping up its population with an aggressive annexation program as city government chased taxpayers moving out of the city. At the same time, Memphis was losing population in the area left behind.
In 1970, there were 623,988 people living inside the Memphis city limits. By 2010, there were 449,930 living in the same area inside those same 1970 borders. About 175,000 people had moved out, according to an analysis by late urban planner Tommy Pacello.
Over time, Memphis sustained its population by annexing Whitehaven, Westwood, Raleigh, Cordova, Countrywood, Hillshire-Stonebridge, and dozens of pockets of unincorporated Shelby County. In 2000, Memphis’ population of 650,100 even fooled the Brookings Institution into commending Memphis for attracting new people.
The think tank assumed Memphis was like many cities, landlocked by surrounding towns. St. Louis is frozen in place by 86 municipalities in St. Louis County. In Kentucky, Jefferson County has 96 cities in addition to Louisville, Indianapolis shares Marion County with 16 other cities, and in Fulton County, Atlanta is surrounded by 15 cities. Government is simpler here with seven cities including Memphis and 300 square miles of unincorporated land.
With annexations, Memphis maintained its population although its footprint grew 60 percent and cut densities in half. The power to annex came to a hard stop 10 years ago when the Tennessee Legislature changed state law so areas could only be annexed if the people who lived there approved it. In other words, Memphis’ current boundaries are now set in concrete.
Whether Memphis loses or gains population in the future is up for debate. It’s likely the prevailing trends continue but no one knows for how long. A report by the economic research firm Younger & Associates projects more than 176,000 new residents for West Tennessee by 2045 in all 21 counties, including Shelby County, which now is also losing population. However, the Tennessee State Data Center at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville predicts Shelby County will lose population for the next 32 years before it grows again.
The debate aside, it can be argued that since 1970, Memphis has effectively been a shrinking city. Now, without the option of annexation, the city faces the task of determining how to manage a city losing population.
Memphis is not alone. Studies have shown that about 40 percent of cities are dealing with population decline. The encouraging news is that about 30 percent of them are economically prosperous, many by repositioning themselves as talent magnets. Others, like Cleveland, Detroit, Baltimore, and Philadelphia have faced facts long ago after losing significant population over decades — responding with urban innovations, collaborations, and resident engagement to manage, if not capitalize, on changes in the city.
While business leaders regularly treat population loss as a proxy for Memphis’ economic health, losing people does not necessarily condemn Memphis to economic decline in and of itself. If there is a main lesson to be gleaned from other cities, it is that there is no one-size-fits-all solution to population loss. Rather, solutions that work for each city must be organic and appropriate to its distinctive trends and conditions.
In other words, with population loss becoming the norm for Memphis in the immediate future, city leaders should begin now to plan for what the new Memphis will look. That means examining the impacts of a declining population and developing the plan to strengthen the economy and consider if the city can attract new people.
Chris Clifton advised a city he knows well when he recommended critical conversations about outcomes and the leadership to take us to the future. It’s advice that should summon up a sense of urgency to get that discussion underway sooner rather than later.
The Census Bureau reported that Memphis had lost 13,785 people in the 10 years between 2010 and 2020. The Bureau recently reported an even more sobering fact: that between 2020 and 2023, the trend accelerated.
