Photograph by Dreamstime
Memphis has seen its share of historic, cliff-hanger, suspenseful, game-changing, and odds-defying elections in the last half-century, but this month’s overhyped midterm is not one of them. The results are unknown as I write this, but it’s safe to say they will not shock anyone locally.
The four headliners in the races for United States senator and governor are white, wealthy, Middle Tennesseans. Yes, and Alabama is good at football.
An election that is all the buzz in Nashville and Franklin is not going to change things much in Memphis. On the electoral map, we are a blue blotch on the western end of a bright-red state. You’ve probably seen the local T-shirt motto: “When you’re bad, they put you in the corner.”
Voter turnout is the big theme of this election. One of the mysteries of Memphis is the huge fluctuation in turnout among people who take the trouble to register, which requires being 18 years old, possessing identification, and expending the few minutes it takes to cast a ballot.
This makes things interesting. Underdogs win. Dynasties rise and crumble. A charismatic politician can drum up a lot of excitement and voter support in Memphis, while a quietly competent one can benefit from a low turnout. Apathy is a powerful force.
Here’s a list of one longtime observer’s top eight modern Memphis elections:
- In 1967, the infamous Henry Loeb became mayor for the second time, beating William Ingram in a runoff because no candidate got more than 50 percent of the votes in the first round. Ingram, the white incumbent, won most of the black votes and thousands of white ones but it was not enough. No Loeb, then very possibly no sanitation strike, no King assassination, no riot. The most fateful election in Memphis history.
- Seven years later, the 1974 midterm election saw Democrat Harold Ford Sr. beat Republican Dan Kuykendall for the 9th Congressional District seat. Ford suspected shenanigans at the Shelby County Election Commission, discovered uncounted ballot boxes at the last minute, and won by 744 votes. The Ford family dynasty in local, state, and national politics was born, and Democrats have held the 9th District seat ever since.
- Dick Hackett won the 1982 special election for mayor even though he finished second in the first balloting to black councilman J.O. Patterson. As in 1967, black votes were not enough to win a runoff. Hackett would win reelection in 1983 and 1987.
- The rules of the game changed, however, in 1991, when a federal judge struck down the runoff provision. By 142 votes, Willie Herenton, with help from Ford, beat Hackett; both had 49 percent of the vote. There were two more memorable numbers. Crank candidate Robert “Prince Mongo” Hodges got 2,300 votes from people who took the trouble to register and vote for a joke. So great was the turnout — 248,093 — that Hackett, the loser, got more votes than all candidates combined (102,176) in the 2015 mayoral election.
- “Get Out the Vote” efforts run the risk of rallying both sides. Chasing “undecided” voters is hard. The trick is to get out votes that are a sure thing, as Memphis supporters of the Clinton/Gore ticket election did in 1996. Clinton actually won a precinct by a margin of 990-2. Tennessee’s 11 electoral votes were not decisive, but winning them was better than losing, as Gore discovered in 2000.
- The 2006 midterm election solidified Tennessee’s Red State standing and underscored the declining influence of Memphis and the Ford name. In the Senate race, Republican Bob Corker, little known outside of Chattanooga, defeated Democratic congressman Harold Ford Jr. The campaign was notable for an ad by the Republican National Committee featuring a Playboy bunny asking Ford to “call me.” To think that this was then considered a really dirty trick is almost quaint today.
- Another winner in 2006 was Steve Cohen, who won the Democratic primary for the 9th Congressional District seat given up by Ford Jr. Cohen got 37 percent of the votes in a field of 16 candidates. Since there was no runoff, that was enough to win the primary and tantamount to winning the seat in the heavily Democratic district. Holding it since then has been a singular feat of political skill for a white man in a majority-black city and district. Footnote: Finishing 11th in the primary with 645 votes was political newcomer Lee Harris, now mayor of Shelby County.
- Following Cohen’s playbook, Jim Strickland won the Memphis mayoral election in 2015 in a crowded field while getting just 42,020 votes.
The lesson? Pick your spots, do your homework, get your base out, and anything can happen. Most of it already has.
